Hello from London,

Donald Trump does not believe he can become a lame-duck president. Aw phooey. True, the Republicans still control Congress. But midterms are only a year away. And in my past week in America, I began to hear some anatine calls. Quack one: those election losses on November 4th, and plenty of polling data, that show voters decidedly unhappy with his second term (read our new data deep-dive into the election results). The biggest reason? They are anxious about the economy. 

There’s every chance that will get worse. Voters’ anger will grow if—more likely, when—the inflationary effects of Mr Trump’s tariffs start to bite. Consumer confidence is already crashing. Jobs data are not being published because of the federal shutdown, but they may eventually show the labour market softening. Voters aren’t happy about that shutdown, either. Around 40m Americans who collect food stamps are anxious that those are being interrupted. Meanwhile many millions more will be furious if chaos breaks out at America’s airports as more flights are cancelled. And woe betide any president who is seen as responsible for ruining Thanksgiving travel later this month. 

Another quack may come from the stockmarket, which looks increasingly toppy. If AI stocks do tumble—in the past week tech ones slid in value by some $800bn, marking their worst week since April—there’s every reason to expect broader damage. That would hit Mr Trump’s standing; during his first presidency he made much of soaring markets. Read our new article on the state of the American economy. I also recommend a recent story, told in charts, that sets out how a market crash would batter ordinary Americans (and many foreign investors) who are more exposed to the stockmarket than ever.

Then there’s the oddest quack of all: Marjorie Taylor Greene. The congresswoman from Georgia has decided she can dare to break rank with Mr Trump, dismissing his claims that inflation is falling, and describing her disgust at both Democrats and her fellow Republicans for failing to end the shutdown. You might consider her as a hard-right conspiracist, but note how she is also a political operator. If MTG spies opportunity in distancing herself from Mr Trump, that sends a message to others in Congress. Duck-hunting season may be coming much sooner than the president could imagine.

Might 2026 thus turn out to be a terrible year for the Republicans? We’ll shortly be serving up our predictions for the coming year. We have been publishing our World Ahead edition every November for the past 40 years. Tom Standage, who edits this, has written an entertaining review of our predictive hits and misses going back to 1986. On Tuesday he will set out what he expects is coming next for politics, AI, the world economy, progress on the climate, various wars and the fate of the one-cent coin. (I’m intrigued to know how much more of the White House could be demolished next year). 

Last week I asked for your views on whether Democrats can sort themselves out. Many of you replied, without much hope, before the various elections of the past week. Brian Harvey, in New York, sees a “fundamental problem with the Democratic Party brand” and observes how the party is only slightly less unpopular than the Republicans when pollsters ask who should control Congress. In contrast, “at about the same time in 2017, Democrats were up just over ten points”. Several of you, including Kit Kirkish, in San Diego, and Dr Kevin T Ryan , say Democrats veered off course when they ignored popular anger over the cost of living and instead (in Kit’s words) “trumpeted support of identity politics, thereby increasing factionalism”. Allison Cary from Florida says the “party brand as a whole is trash”, but she is more hopeful that the right politicians—such as Zohran Mamdani in New York—will “offer a hopeful vision for the future” and get people energised. What the party needs, she says, is not Mr Mamdani’s policies but “to mirror Zohran's skills in communicating a hopeful vision”. 

For next week I want to hear your views on something related to Britain but central to the idea of trust in all democracies. Britain’s centre-left government is widely expected to break a solemn election promise and put up income tax in the annual budget later this month. Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, says this is putting the national interest before party prospects. Can politicians ever break manifesto promises on tax rises (remember George H.W. Bush telling Americans to “read my lips”) and still keep the trust of voters? If so, when? Send me your views at  [email protected].