Welcome to The Logoff: The US-Iran “ceasefire,” such as it is, is breaking down.
What’s happening? After Iran downed a US helicopter earlier this week, violence between the two sides is escalating once again. The US struck targets inside Iran on Wednesday, and President Donald Trump subsequently threatened to “hit them again hard today,” while Iran has launched new attacks against multiple Gulf states, as well as nearby Jordan.
Iran also struck at Israel for the first time since early April over the weekend, amid ongoing fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah; Israel responded with strikes of its own.
What’s the context? The current chaos comes after Trump started the week on a relative high note; on Tuesday, he told reporters that a “very, very good deal” was imminent. As CNN’s Aaron Blake points out, though, Trump’s prognostications are rarely worth the (figurative) paper they’re written on: He’s now predicted a negotiating breakthrough at least 38 times with nothing to show for it.
What’s the big picture? Trump’s Wednesday claim about a “secret” (not actually secret) effort to help vessels through the Strait of Hormuz aside, the crucial maritime passage is still largely closed to commercial traffic, and its impact on the global economy is only growing.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on Wednesday showing inflation jumping to 4.2 percent, its highest level in three years. Much of that increase comes from higher energy prices, a consequence of the strait’s closure. (Abroad, economic pressure from the war is doing even more damage; it’s resulted in deadly protests in multiple countries.)
None of that necessarily means Trump will give ground and agree to end the war any more quickly — as my colleague Josh Keating wrote late last month, he still seems to think he’s winning. But Trump doesn’t actually have a path to the kind of big win he seems to be seeking, and in the meantime, the consequences will keep piling up.
