Welcome to The Logoff: After more than three months, President Donald Trump has an Iran deal. Kind of.
What’s happening? On Sunday, the Trump administration and Iran both said that they had reached a deal to extend an ongoing ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.
But the full text of the agreement, which both sides signed electronically, has not yet been released — and they have agreed to nothing regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which Trump has frequently cited as his main justification for the war.
What did the US get out of this? As things currently stand, very little: Opening the strait, far from being a win, just means restoring the prewar status quo. (It might not even be that, in the end: Iran reportedly hopes to impose fees for transiting the strait in the future.)
At the same time, 13 Americans and thousands of Iranians have died. The conflict has also cost the US billions of dollars and driven up global energy prices and inflation.
What about Iran? As my colleague Josh Keating points out, Iran comes out of this with some serious leverage in the form of the strait. It may be reopening for now — but Iran’s leadership has proved it can close it to traffic at will and impose a serious cost on the US and global economy by doing so.
Iran may also get sanctions relief as part of the deal, as well as access to some of its frozen assets.
What comes next? Assuming all goes well, the deal will be signed formally and in-person in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday. Fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is likely to take longer, and unwinding the war’s impact on oil and natural gas production even longer yet.
In the meantime, as Josh reports, pitfalls aplenty await: In addition to the next 60 days of nuclear negotiations, Israel’s war in Lebanon could also undermine Sunday’s deal.
